Hurricane Rafael formed Tuesday night as it passed through the Cayman Islands with maximum sustained wind speeds of 80 mph, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.
Rafael continues to strengthen and is now expected to be a Category 2 hurricane when it makes landfall in Cuba Wednesday.
After that, a weakened Rafael will move into the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. While current forecasts show the storm moving toward the northern Gulf Coast, Florida could still feel some impacts, even without a landfall.
USA TODAY NETWORK
CNN —
Hurricane Rafael slammed into Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane Wednesday afternoon before losing some strength as it passed over the island and entered the Gulf of Mexico.
The storm is moving away from western Cuba as a Category 2 hurricane, and conditions on the island are expected to improve overnight, with winds, rain, and storm surge diminishing.
The hurricane, which caused the island’s power grid to crash, is the fifth major hurricane of the year in the Atlantic and the strongest this late in the year since 2020.
The storm’s winds strengthened from 60 mph to 115 mph from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon, an increase well over the 35 mph needed for rapid intensification. As Rafael moved over Cuba, it weakened slightly to a Category 2 hurricane, with 105 mph maximum sustained winds.
Rapid intensification is happening more frequently as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to fossil fuel pollution; Rafael is the ninth storm to rapidly intensify in the Atlantic basin this year.
In the Florida Keys, tropical storm warnings remain active from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, which connects the Middle Keys and the Dry Tortugas, with conditions likely persisting through Wednesday night.
Rafael is expected to turn to the west and slow on Thursday, likely meandering along the southern Gulf of Mexico into the weekend. It is unlikely at this time that this storm will impact the northern Gulf of Mexico with the hurricane center only warning that the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should keep up to date on Rafael. There is still some uncertainty at the end of the forecast models about where the storm will end up, which will continue to be monitored.
A more confident forecast will be possible as the storm churns over the waters of the southeast Gulf of Mexico on Thursday.
CNN
